A torrential rain struck Qingyang on July 15, 2022, which is located in semi-arid region of eastern Northwest China, causing the daily rainfall and hourly rainfall at several stations to exceed the historical extreme values. The formation mechanism of the torrential rain in semi-arid region of Northwest China is analyzed based on multi-source observation data and ERA5 reanalysis data, so as to provide some useful reference for rainstorm forecast in arid and semi-arid areas. The results show that the torrential rain process occurred under the background of weak synoptic scale baroclinic forcing, weak unstable energy and deep wet layer in the complex terrain of the Loess Plateau, with characteristics of strong locality and long duration of heavy precipitation, which is a warm-sector torrential rain. The special circulation configuration of South Asian high, western Pacific subtropical high and pressure system at the lower level is conducive to the occurrence and development of mesoscale convective system. Convective initiation and development were triggered by surface wind convergence line and low-level southerly jet. Development and long-time maintenance of the low-level jet intensified surface convergence line continuously. The left side of low-level jet (rainstorm area) formed two stable secondary circulations with the right side of the exit and entrance of it, respectively, which is the key factor for the maintenance of the convective system. The release of condensation latent heat caused local frontogenesis and low-level positive vorticity development, which is another important factor for development and maintenance of convective systems, and it is also an important reason for maintenance of atmospheric instability. The mesoscale convective system exhibited deep, low center of mass and quasi-stationary characteristics under the combined effects of the above mentioned factors, the radar echoes were characterized by backward propagation and train effect.
In the flood season (from June to August) of 2020, Gansu Province experienced intensive precipitation with long duration and wide ranges. The performances of three global models (ECMWF, GRAPES_GFS and NCEP_GFS) and four regional models (GRAPES_3 km, GRAPES_LZ10 km, GRAPES_LZ3 km and regional model SMS-WARMS in East China) for 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast were evaluated in this paper. The main results are as follows: (1) The ECMWF model surpassed the other two global models in forecast performance, while among regional models, the GRAPES_3 km and the SMS-WARMS were better, and the latter was more stable. (2) The regional models had lower accuracy of rain probability forecast and TS, ETS, POD than those of global models for light and moderate rain, but for rainstorms they outperformed global models; the POD and Bias of regional models for heavy rain and rainstorms were significantly higher than those of global models. (3) According to the differences of 500 hPa circulation pattern, the precipitation in Gansu could be divided into two types including subtropical high marginal type and low trough type. Four subtropical high marginal precipitation processes and three low trough precipitation processes in flood season of 2020 were tested and evaluated. For global models and regional models, they all had better capability in predicting precipitation with different magnitudes for the former type than the latter one. The ECMWF model and regional models were better than the NCEP_GFS model and the GRAPES_GFS model in predicting heavy rain and rainstorm. Among global models, the ECMWF model had the best forecast effect for the two precipitation types, and the East China regional model had the best forecast effect for the two precipitation types among regional models. (4) All the seven models had good forecasting capability for the spatial orientation of moderate and heavy rain for both rainfall types, while the forecast effect of rainfall location for subtropical high marginal type was better than that of low-trough type, but the predicted precipitation intensity was stronger than observations, especially for the center of precipitation.
Based on hourly precipitation data at 146 automatic weather stations of Lanzhou from 2012 to 2019, the refined characteristics of precipitation in Lanzhou were analyzed from different time scales. The results are as follows: (1) The average annual precipitation was less in the north and more in the south of Lanzhou, and that was more in the edge and less in the interior from 2012 to 2019. The inter-annual change of precipitation was obvious from 2012 to 2019, the precipitation in 2018 was abnormally more by 46%, while that in 2015 and 2017 was abnormally less, especially in 2015 it was less by 30%. (2) The precipitation mainly concentrated in July and August in Lanzhou, and it in the south was obviously more than that in the north due to the influence of atmospheric circulation situations, while the spatial difference of precipitation wasn’t obvious in other months. (3) The diurnal variation of rainfall was obvious in Lanzhou, the precipitation was less in morning and more at night, and the range of rainfall was larger at night and smaller in the daytime. The precipitation in urban areas was generally less than that in mountain areas under the influence of altitude, and it mostly concentrated from afternoon to evening due to heat island effect, the convective rainfall was more, while the diurnal distribution of rainfall was more uniform in mountain areas, the fluctuation was smaller as a whole. (4) Overall, the frequency of short-time heavy rainfall in Anning district of Lanzhou was the highest, but the short-time heavy rainfall at Liuhe station of Gaolan county and Xujiamo station of Yongdeng county was the most frequent, and that in Yongdeng county was a critical concern.
Based on the hourly precipitation data at 81 national meteorological observation stations of Gansu Province from 1981 to 2018 and NCEP reanalysis data, the climate and circulation characteristics of extreme rainstorms were emphatically analyzed in different falling areas of Gansu Province. The results are as follows: (1) The extreme rainstorm weathers occurred mainly in Longnan, Tianshui, Pingliang and Qingyang of eastern Gansu, and the heavy rainfall centers concentrated in Kangxian and Huixian of Longnan. The extreme rainstorms were classified into four types including eastern Gansu, southern Gansu, southeastern Gansu and dispersion patterns, according to the falling areas of rainstorms. (2) The extreme rainstorms were easily to occur in July and August in Gansu, especially in mid-August. The extreme rainstorms in southern Gansu were earlier than in eastern Gansu. The precipitation of extreme rainstorms at night was more than in the daytime as a whole, the night rain characteristic was remarkable in Gansu, especially in southern Gansu and southeastern Gansu. In additional, the convective characteristic was significant in Gansu. (3) There were 2.5, 5 and 10 years period of extreme rainstorms in Gansu during 1981-2018, and the 2.5-year periodic oscillation was obvious. (4) The extreme rainstorms in Gansu were correlated with the subtropical high, and the falling area of rainstorm was significantly related to the location of subtropical high. Moreover, the extreme rainstorms in eastern Gansu were also related to the easterly airflow at the bottom of northern high ridge, the extreme rainstorms with dispersion pattern were related to the tropical low pressure in South China Sea, while the extreme rainstorms in southern and southeastern Gansu depended on the intensity and location of short-wave trough in Tibet Plateau.
Based on the lightning monitoring data of 33 lightning location monitoring stations and real-time lightning disaster data of 48 counties in Qinghai Province from 2010 to 2019, the spatial distribution and risk zoning of lightning disasters in Qinghai Province were analyzed by using mathematical statistics and ArcGIS spatial analysis method. The results show that the regions with more lightning frequency and strong positive and negative lightning current intensity were mainly distributed in the central and eastern part of Qinghai Province, while the areas with high value of thunderstorm days were mainly distributed in the Qilian Mountain and the southern part of Qinghai Province. The lightning disaster risk presented obvious regional differentiation in Qinghai Province. The high-risk regions were mainly located in Kunlun Mountains, Qilian Mountains, Nyainqentanglha Mountains, Bayan Har Mountains and Anyemaqen Snowy Mountains, as well as part of the southern grazing area of Qinghai Province. The northwest of Qaidam Basin, the southeast pastoral area of Qinghai Province and some areas around Qinghai Lake were medium-risk areas. The risk level in most of the eastern agricultural area, part of Qaidam Basin, Wudaoliang and Tuotuo River area was relatively lower.
Based on the drought disaster data of the Heng-Shao drought corridor from 1961 to 2018, the meteorological drought composite index (MCI) was used to study the drought monitoring and evaluation methods of the Heng-Shao drought corridor. The results are as follows: (1) During the peak period of crop water demand (from June to October), the drought events with weighted mean of regional MCI (DI) less than or equal to -0.5 and the process duration greater than or equal to 16 days were included in the statistics, and the three elements such as the extreme intensity, cumulative intensity and duration of DI index were the best factors for annual regional drought assessment. Furthermore, based on the three elements of DI index, the annual assessment index of regional drought (MCIe) calculated by using the TOPSIS method was the best. (2) Based on the MCIe index, the combined grading method of average value and standard deviation was used to obtain the threshold of regional drought degree for normal, drought, severe drought, and extreme drought years. It was found that the MCIe index had a strong ability to assess extreme drought years and normal years in the Heng-Shao district, and had good assessment ability for 2019 and 2020. Furthermore, the extreme disaster year in 2013 was simulated, it was found that the MCIe index could better capture the change of drought in the Heng-Shao drought corridor. Therefore, the MCIe index could support the rapid assessment and early warning of drought in the Heng-Shao drought corridor to some extent.
Theweather systems and a relatedmesoscal convective systems, causing severe heavy rain in the south-eastGansu Province during 27-28 Aug 2006, are successfully simulatedwithMM5 models. Trumpet-shaped topography prominently increased rainfall in Gangu county. The rise of the terrain enhanced the low level convergence and verticalmovementover thewindward side of the terrain.The dynamical enforced rise of the terrain emerged at the prophase and the time of the rainfal.l .
The main functions of Surfer software,ActiveX automation technique and the interface of VB application and Surfer are introduced in this paper.It is also introduced how to combine the strong ability of development using VB software and the strong mapping in Surfer based on the interface.and the key program to Ca/Ty out the interface technique and a case of application automatic mapping are presented.
The large range rare fog process which occurred in East China from November 30 to December 4 in 2004 was analyzed, including the circulation background, its adjustment and evolvement, the climatic background, the atmospheric stratification condition and the vapor condition near surface, etc. Results show that the warm advection at the low level, the stable atmospheric stratification and the abundant vapor condition resulted in this rare fog process, and fog dissipation needs the cold air invasion with the cold front.